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Li Rushi, a reporter of our newspaper.

Aluminium prices continued to strengthen from April to May. According to Shanghai Nonferrous Network (SMM), domestic spot aluminum prices reached a 22-month high of 20750 yuan / ton on April 15, and exceeded 2% on May 22.Videopokerstrategy.10,000 yuan / ton mark.

What factors support it?VideopokerstrategyHas the price of aluminum gone up? How will aluminum prices change in the future? What is the current production situation of aluminum enterprises? A reporter from the Securities Daily conducted various interviews on this issue.

Aluminum prices may remain strong in the second quarter

Yao Xin, a researcher in the aluminum business department of Shanghai Iron and Steel Union, told the Securities Daily that the decline in US CPI data in April led to heightened market expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut in September. Under this influence, the price of the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum in the domestic futures market broke through the shock range since late April, rising continuously with the plate.

"from the perspective of previous years, the month-on-month flat apparent consumption of primary aluminum in May is in line with the seasonal performance. It is expected that aluminum consumption will remain at a high level in the second quarter of 2024, forming a strong support for the fundamentals of aluminum prices, and the superimposed macro drive will remain unchanged, which will drive aluminum futures prices to maintain a strong operation in the second quarter and is expected to enter the range of more than 21000 yuan / ton. " Yao Xin said.

For the rise in aluminum prices, Shenhuo said that in view of the fact that domestic and foreign aluminum markets are in a low-growth supply environment, coupled with the "ceiling" effect of China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity, with the growth of consumption, it is very difficult for electrolytic aluminum to have an obvious surplus. The pattern of low inventory of aluminum ingots will continue, and overall, aluminum prices will be at a relatively good level in the future.

The operating rate has increased to 95%.

According to a report released by the National Bureau of Statistics on May 17, domestic industrial production of primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) reached 3.58 million tons in April, an increase of 7.2% over the same period last year.

According to the analysis of Shanghai Nonferrous Network (SMM), the increase in electrolytic aluminum production since April is mainly due to the continuous promotion of the resumption of production in Yunnan Aluminum Plant. With the improvement of power supply in Yunnan Province, the superimposed high aluminum price has promoted the start-up of the second round of resumption of production in local smelters.

Up to now, the completed production capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan has been in the forefront of the country, and the resumption of production of local aluminum enterprises has a great impact on the operation capacity of electrolytic aluminum in the country. In May, the power supply in Yunnan has recovered steadily, aluminum enterprises have accelerated their resumption of production, and the operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum has been maintained. A reporter from the Securities Daily learned that local aluminum enterprises in Yunnan have shown a high enthusiasm for resuming production.

Huang Zhongxia, an analyst at Hualian Futures, said that specifically, the current electrolytic aluminum production capacity of Yunnan Hongtai New Materials Co., Ltd. has basically returned to the level before the reduction of production, and the remaining capacity may be put into production in the near future. Yunnan Aluminum shares, Yunnan Shenhuo surplus production capacity in recent days to continue to resume production, to June is expected to be fully restored.

Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd. said that the power supply situation in Yunnan Province has improved recently, and the company continues to strengthen communication and coordination with relevant departments, actively strive for power load, speed up the progress of electrolytic aluminum production, and steadily improve the utilization rate of electrolytic aluminum production capacity, which has not yet been fully resumed.

In a recent exchange with investors, Shenhuo said that since Yunnan Province liberalized partial load control on March 16 this year, its subsidiary Yunnan Shenhuo has actively organized an orderly resumption of production and completed the start-up of the second series and the third stage by April 20. With the advent of the flood season, it is expected that the power supply load will be increased according to the incoming water and the transmission and distribution of other provinces. At that time, Yunnan Shenhuo will start the remaining production capacity in an orderly manner in accordance with the resumption of production plan, with 900000 tons of electrolytic aluminum running.

Yao Xin said that under the background of continued strong aluminum prices, the operating rate of the domestic electrolytic aluminum supply side has been raised to 95%.

Terminal demand continues to grow

Yu Xi, co-founder of the communication planet App, told the Securities Daily that in recent years, with the development of new energy and lightweight cars, it has brought a new increase in demand for electrolytic aluminum.

Mingtai Aluminum, a manufacturer of aluminum plate, strip and foil, said at an investor research conference that its monthly production and sales increased greatly this year, reaching an all-time high of 120000 tons in March. At present, orders have been placed for more than 1.5 months, and downstream demand is showing signs of improvement. From the company's sales analysis, new energy and energy storage field, automotive field, intelligent equipment manufacturing and other areas of sales growth is good.

Hesheng Co., a producer of aluminum extruded materials, said that the company has reached a partnership with mainstream battery manufacturers and vehicle manufacturers in the industry to supply a wide range of products, including a number of popular models, and the current capacity utilization rate is stable.

Aluminum processing leader Innovation New Materials said that the company's orders increased in the first quarter of 2024, mainly due to an increase in on-hand orders for high-end products compared with the same period in 2023. It is expected that the main demand increment of aluminum processing industry in the future will come from automotive lightweight, power grid, 3C consumer electronics and other products.